Stock Market Chat

@Greg Sacramento is USO (US oil) traded normally like other stocks?

Also where do you see the market going in the next few months? Do you think the Dow will hit 20,000 or 25,000 next?

Let's use this thread for the discussion of stock market!

 

The Federal Reserve is rapidly buying up municipal bonds right now. Scary times.

 

I believe it is. But how well does it track the price of oil, and is there a fund/stock that does a better job of it?

How about FREQ, a company much discussed here. Any thoughts about whether or not it might be a good investment? It's currently close to as low as it's ever been.

 

Market is super crazy right now. I wouldn't try to catch the bottom but rather average down your stocks over time. Also, I wouldn't get into oil. It is a dying market.

 

I heard tinnitus is doing some pretty hard damage on the economy, someone has to get those bastards under control.

 

On the other hand, all it will take for the price of oil to be 2x or 3x the price it's at now will be a resumption of the usage of oil, which will definitely happen, and an agreement between a couple of major players to cut production to raise prices, which will most likely happen, maybe within days. So I think it's a good bet that the price of oil will be substantially higher than its at now within the next couple of years, maybe the next couple of weeks. That said, I agree that the bottom could also be lower, maybe much lower than its at now. So buying at any point could mean a substantila loss, at least in the near term.

Oil may be a dying market over the next 10 or 20 years but not the near future. It's used a whole lot and will be used a whole lot.

Obviously anything can happen, just some thoughts...

 

The big question that Wall Street does not want to talk about is - will this virus become seasonal ? If it does, the same stocks that where badly hurt last month will be hurt again. These stocks include travel / transportation, human in person services (all sectors) and where people gather. Suppliers for these companies will also get wear. Even with cheap oil, things may not differ - fear factors.

Oil is a tough play, even with options - using both puts and calls. The USO Fund seeks to reflect the performance of the spot price of West Texas intermediate light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma by investing in a mix of oil futures contracts and other oil interests. Because of this, all ten analysts have only a hold, which in this market is a sell.

 

If you are going for a short term bump, I would say that may be a good play. But seeing that we're in a rally right now, I only see everything going back down to the SPY 240-250 range.

 

Let's keep this thread going... It looks like Oil is going to be cut by 10 million barrels a day, but if no one is going anywhere then what good is that?? Dow futures are down 300 now, it looks like this run could be over for now. Earnings are going to be reported and I don't think we open the economy back up May 1st.

Any opinions on this?

 

The FED is, as always, manipulating the market and buying all sorts of useless crap. No matter if it is junk bonds, ETFs etc.

Maybe we will get a more realistic idea of the real shape of the stock market after the US election.

People in America are lining up for unemployment (38,6 million!) and NASDAQ is breaking its record highs! It's a complete nonsense.

 

@Juan

It sure is.
Companies like Netflix have done well with people being at home.

 

I think lots of people are buying stocks with the unemployment. this ting is gonna crash when that ends

 

Are you serious? The US is like a surreal country in financial matters... most people are indebted or try to leverage with money they don't have or cannot return.

 

Many techs and bio techs took a hit yesterday, but I would not be concerned with positive estimate revisions, or to be concerned with forward P/E ratios or having a high PEG ratio where this metric also takes a company's expected earnings into account with a company such as Frequency Therapeutics.

Most important with a biotech like Frequency Therapeutics is product design and clinical applications which many here are following. Investment is either short term or for decades. I have shares in NVAX, Stamps.com, AMD and a few gold and silver miners all bought a long time ago, but sold AMD and Stamps last week. I don't trade much anymore, but if I was younger, I might buy and hold FREQ long term.

 

As for NASDAQ apparently Softbank was playing with derivatives and that fuelled the spectacular bull rally of the past few months.

 

@Juan In August, Softbank derivatives helped Tesla’s share price by 74%, Apple 21%, and Amazon 9%. Most of the really smart investors that saw this action, placed their funds in other techs, virus bio techs and gold/silver mining options for a much larger ride.

 

About Tesla, Saudi investors sold their share when it was half price... it already looked expensive then.

 

Tesla stocks are plummeting...

 

In the long run (if FX-322 is successful), an investment of $1,000 at $22 per share (45 shares), how much could the potential financial gain be?

And what is a good $ amount to invest now?

 

Julian and Felix Baker of the Baker Company, a hedge fund that needs watching has to their increasing shares, before drug approval - for timing of investment. If approved, focus then needs be on the speed of medical providers - compliance including education and capabilities. Another one to watch is Bill Miller - watch his investment portfolio and filings.

Since Biden will win, investors are buying green - environmentally friendly. Many green companies are up 25% in the last couple of weeks with some up 400%. This will continue until election and after the administration takes the White House. Green bills are also proposed by governors and senators.

 

The potential gain will It'll depend on the results of Phase IIa and what the next steps are after that. If they're somehow able to treat the lower frequencies too, this drug will be a hearing aid killer, which would make its potential sky-high (the 4 major hearing aid companies are worth $10B-20B each). However, in its current form, it's really just a supplement for hearing aids and possibly a cure for tinnitus (fingers crossed). The tinnitus market would be huge though, and not something to overlook. And if the multiple injection strategy makes headway into hitting some more of the lower frequencies, then this drug will look very appealing to people losing their hearing due to old age (but who don't necessarily need a hearing aid to understand normal conversations).

Also, the potential downsides if this drug fails Phase IIa are huge too. See Auris Medical in 2016 (EARS) or Otonomy in 2017 (OTIC) for examples of what happens when a drug fails.

As for how much to invest, it depends on how much you're willing to lose. Another thing to consider is that any money invested will be tied up for a while, as there probably won't be any huge movement in the stock until next April. Though then again, there are probably people out there that are making a fortune buying these biotechs when they dip and selling them when they go up. I can't count how many times Frequency Therapeutics has fluctuated by 20% since the start of the year (it's even up 8% today).

 

We are in the midst of another industrial revolution that will change everything. If we go back in time, we can see how water and steam mechanised production creating vast amounts of wealth in a relatively short space of time. Not long after this, we harboured the use of electricity which powered our homes and businesses, and this took us into a new era of mass production. Then the technological age crept upon us and changed the way we live.

Right now, I see data as one of the most valuable commodities out there. From a socio-economic point of view, it’s everything, and so the stocks I’m looking at are mainly tech and science-oriented.

I believe we are heading towards a financial revolution that will change the world. Bitcoin, for example, is quickly becoming one of the dominant stores of value alongside precious metals. This helps wealthy people, and companies, hedge against inflation. I can’t see how FIAT currencies will survive in the longterm, and I believe they will slowly be replaced by cryptocurrencies. Mass adoption will occur eventually, and I think this is becoming more and more evident now that companies like PayPal are entering the fold.

I hold a few cryptos in my portfolio now, and one that I particularly like is called Vechain. Their blockchain covers many industries and is predominantly a supply-chain driven venture. They seek to eradicate fake goods, and authenticate things like vehicle mileages and service histories, etc. They are also involved with the supply-chain of medical equipment and drugs, and are partnered with some huge companies and universities. They are helping Bayer with their COVID-19 vaccine program by tracing their drugs across the supply-chain.

Here’s a list of some of their current partners:



I’m not shilling this, so please don’t buy it based on this post. This is just an example of the future I believe we’re heading towards, and these are the type of companies I’m currently investing in.

 

Ey guys, maybe you could help me out here. My parents are thinking of investing 100-200K in Astellas, Frequency Therapeutics and Otonomy. Would it be sensible to invest now and with that certain amount?

 

Seems like a highly risky proposition. One influenced by emotional thinking, because of their child's suffering?

If your parents are extremely wealthy (multi millionaires), and they don't mind the prospect of losing the 100-200K, then why not. They will make millions and millions if these treatments work out.

 

I would wait for the next Bitcoin retrace and then buy a position in that. It’s almost certainly going to go above $20k and beyond with the money that’s pouring into it.

You could then take some of your profits from there and buy a position in one of those biotechs.

This is not financial advice, though. It’s what I would do. You should never base investment decisions on what strangers tell you to do online. Always do your own research, and learn how the markets work before putting your money into anything.

You often find people who are new to investing freaking out about price fluctuations. Never put yourself in a position where you will lose sleep over the money you’ve put in, as that’s a clear sign that you’ve over-invested. Only put in what you can afford to lose, that’s rule number one. Then you need to be clear about what your objectives are: are you trading or are you holding longterm? If you’re confused about this then you’re likely to lose money. Have a plan and stick to it. I know of people who say they aren’t trading but are investing, and yet they still look at the charts at all hours of the day. The money you see on your screen is meaningless until you crystallise it by selling, and that’s whether it’s up or down.

As Mr Miyagi once said: if you stand on the left side of the road, it’s safe. If you stand on the right side of the road, that’s also safe. Stand in the middle, however, and sooner or later you’re gonna get knocked down. Think of the right and left side of the road as trading and investing. Standing in the middle is the equivalence of the confused state that newer investors can get themselves into which allows for their emotional state to force mistakes.

I have no idea what your experience is, but I just thought I’d throw that out there. You should also try and buy stocks that you at least have an understanding of, and do proper due diligence and research, and not just a quick google.

 

Market is not doing well today. Big chunk of change out the window this week so far.

 

This is because of the fresh lockdown talks. All markets are being battered around the world right now.

 

Yeah, also with the US election a week away people are very spooked.

 

Me and a close friend of mine have been saying this for months. Wait till November, there will be a crash or at least a worthy drop on the markets. I think this sums things up:

 

The U.S. had good figures on unemployment, inflation, GDP growth, manufacturing, retail sales, trade, etc. until COVID-19. The fundamentals are strong. Once we have a vaccine, the economy will start to recover soon after that. Investors are easily spooked due to day trading, etc. so I would not pay too much attention to short term market fluctuations (lasting a few weeks or several months, or so; I doubt this will happen). Wall Street is not in investments for the long haul. The U.S. markets have already regained most of their losses so far.

People who invest on regular intervals such as through 401ks, etc. should not worry due to dollar-cost averaging.