Frequency Therapeutics — Hearing Loss Regeneration

Market is in a HUGE correction today. Even crypto. I had a bad feeling and sold my FREQ positions during after hours last night and sure enough it tanked this morning.

 

Be careful trying to time the market, it could have just as easily shot up (as it did after hours a day or so ago). Graham Stephan did a great video on this the other day where he pointed out that many of the gains people get come from a hand full of good market days. It's easy to miss one of these days if you panic sell:

The Next Market Crash - 7 Ways To Make Money

And with the Phase 2a results on the way, you'd feel pretty awful if you had sidelined your money and they released the results (assuming they're good).

 

I don't think there's ever anything wrong with taking profit. It was a good amount.

This is trying to time the market. If you look at CCIV as a really good example of how this can go south real quick, everyone expected the stock price to skyrocket when the merger was announced. But instead everyone bought the rumor and sold the news, and the ones who waited for the announcement got super wrecked. Be careful with these types of plays.

 

Holding through Phase 2a results isn't timing the market, it's betting that there will be good results. That's different than what you're doing. Holding through results has its own dangers (ex: Otonomy's recent Otividex results). However, it's very different than trying to ride the up and down waves of the market. Nothing wrong with taking profit if you want to move on, but if you buy back in at a higher price, you're not really taking a profit. Also, I'm not saying there's anything wrong with riding the waves, you just have to be careful.

 

I still don't see what I have to be careful about when it comes to taking profit. I'm not planning on buying back in, the chapter has ended for me. It's called swing trading, which involves trading chapters. It is a certain method of trading that fits the strategy of certain people, including me. It's not panic selling.

 

Opportunity to buy more!!!

 

I just bought 100 @ $48.91, sitting on 300 shares now. Fingers crossed... I'll take positive Phase 2a results and approved meds over the money any day of the week!

 

@Flyingsheep, I swing traded FREQ buying <20 and selling over 20 for a few months and used all profit to buy more.

I don't think now is the time to swing trade FREQ given we're so close to the results.

I expect March will be pivotal for shareholders with the results.

As long as you're comfortable with potentially missing out on some big gains next month, then take your money now.

Personally, I bought into FREQ because it's a company that I want to own part of because I believe so strongly in what they are doing. I could have gone for much safer investments.

It's not a stock for everybody, but people here who discuss daily the progress, it's a good company to hold. Provided they succeed of course.

You never know, it could resolve your hearing loss, tinnitus and make you a few bucks in the process.

@patorjk, I remember you said you bought OTIC, I am sorry for your losses yesterday. I hope Otonomy will succeed too for patients and investors.

Holding long and strong, but the profit is only an added benefit, I want a world where nobody suffers with tinnitus and hearing loss.

 

I was wondering if anyone would remember that I bought some - it was crazy owning that stock, and believe it or not, I actually sold the last of my shares a week before the Otividex results. I was really rooting for Otonomy. I read so many random research papers on BDNF. I mention it somewhere in the OTO-413 thread, but I bought in after being impressed with some of the animal research.

However, the weird sell-off that happened in January unnerved me. I had bought in at ~$3.7, and as it slowly fell from $7 a share to $4 a share I started to get a really bad feeling that something was wrong. When it hit $4, I sold 75% of my shares. The next day I had second thoughts and bought back 50% of my position. Over the next week or two I thought about it a little bit more and decided to exit my position completely.

4 years ago I was invested in Auris Medical (EARS), and I had a bad feeling too, but I decided to hold because I wanted the drug to work. I lost $5k doing that. I thought a lot about that with my Otonomy investment. I only invested what I could lose, but I also realized that I needed to be smart and listen to my brain, not my heart. When I surveyed the landscape of retail investors, I think a lot of people were blinded by hope or greed. Had the drug succeeded, people would have made a ton of money. I felt somewhat vindicated in my decision by the results, but at the same time I was very sad too. I actually think Otonomy has a pretty bleak future now. Hopefully they can navigate the waters ahead and OTO-413 isn't delayed much further, but I think they have a tough road ahead.

For anyone interested, these were some of the main things that changed me from having a good feeling to a bad feeling about the company:

• The weird sell-off. During the month of January the stock lost almost half of its value for no reason. Someone I follow contacted their investor relations team and they told him the downward pressure on the stock was due to a single big investor who was exiting their position. How did Otonomy know this? And why would someone exit their position right before the big results? Something about this seemed very off.
• How quiet the company was being.
• The general lack of enthusiasm from the company. Comparing Otonomy and Frequency Therapeutics is like comparing night to day.
• Realizing how far away OTO-413 is.
• Not being excited about OTO-313.
• Their VP of Clinical Trials changed his LinkedIn profile picture in early February. I know this is small, but think about how often you login or update LinkedIn. I never do that. Only when I think I may want to change jobs. I will admit though that I may be reading too much into this one.

 

Yes, I am aware that potentially good results are coming, and I do totally believe in this company and what they're doing. Unfortunately the market doesn't actually care about tinnitus or hearing loss. I've been burned in the past pretty bad waiting for stock shares to go up once good news arrives, and history has shown me that this is when the composite operator pulls the rug. So for me the risk is not worth diamond handing it. For others it's worth it and that's fine. I had a good entry position and $55 a share was a good profit taking level for the way I like to trade. This is just me sharing how I traded FREQ. Not financial advice.

 

Sounds like someone may have been fired...

 

Anyone want to guess when they might release 90 day results for FX-322 Phase 2a clinical trial?

I’m thinking it will most likely be the middle or end of March, early April at the latest.

 

What are the speculative theories for how those of us will approach this treatment (should it work) who have “normal” hearing? We all know a standard audiogram doesn’t mean much, but is it too much expectation that the entire industry will be re-framed with how they test us for ear damage?

My hope is that they emphasize the importance of our hearing past 8 kHz and testing that as a diagnostic tool. Far too many people here with debilitating tinnitus and “normal” audiograms.

I guess it’s still somewhat early to really speculate.

 

I think one of the primary reasons to include 8 kHz to 16 kHz as an experimental endpoint is to include these patients. If the study shows improvement there and it's correlated to measures like word score and tinnitus, many ENTs will definitely jump on board imo.

 

I would say last week of March. The Otividex stuff came out on a Monday. The 29th is the last Monday of the month, seems like a good day. I can also see it being sooner than that. Perhaps someone here has noticed if there tend to be trends in what days companies release results? (End of the week vs beginning).

 

I do hope the results are positive. I feel like FX-322 is going to help a lot of us who suffer from hyperacusis, tinnitus and hearing loss. I can’t see FX-322 not helping these conditions.

 

If the Phase 2 tinnitus results show big improvements, I really hope Frequency Therapeutics understands the potential of that for their marketing and starts screaming it from the rooftops.

Sure, hearing loss is a bigger problem on an overall scale, but on an individual level tinnitus is a way more acute problem for patients. I.e, it’s more likely for a person with only hearing loss to procrastinate on getting FX-322 than it is for a tinnitus sufferer, should it help with both. Hence for marketing/word of mouth/press tinnitus will be a louder bull-horn. If anything, all the snake oil products on the market is proof of that.

I could see one of those animated stories they released the other day, but with focus on someone with tinnitus, and then concluding the story with hearing loss being the problem - FX-322 being the solution.

 

@patorjk, I'm really glad you got out before it crashed. You were the first person I thought about when I saw it drop dramatically. Good speculation there and acting on your head rather than your heart.

Interesting about what you said about Auris Medical, I remember when they went public and I thought I want a piece of that with AM-101. I was going to invest in them, but I didn't (luckily).

With Frequency Therapeutics however, I am a lot more confident. Bob Langer is on another level.

I probably would never invest in a company that solely makes a drug for tinnitus given the complexity of it.

Us as tinnitus sufferers have not got their break yet and it's just let down after let down. I have no faith in Hough Ear Institute, little faith in Otonomy and most faith in Frequency Therapeutics and I like many here, read a lot about the research.

 

I’ll be interested to see if they’re presenting at the Cowen Healthcare Conference on March 3rd. Could be a good date to make a splash.

 

They'd have to be careful with the wording and presentation of this, even if it does work really well for most sufferers.

 

Yeah, true. At least before they've gotten a finished product.

 

I understand the delivery method of this is injection through the tympanic membrane.

Has anybody had this procedure done (perhaps steroids) and can they elaborate on the experience? To me it makes me wince, anyone else? What is it like having a small hole poked in the eardrum and could this perhaps lead to further complications or even new tinnitus?

I know it heals but still, the eardrum is not designed to have a needle put through it imo. However I am also aware this is the best delivery method we have available.

 

There are several people in this thread who has had multiple similar intratympanic injections and as far as I can remember none has reported any other complications than discomfort.

Personally I would happily endure broken ribs and punctured lungs to make this crap stop.

 

I don't think this is too worrisome, if done correctly—the eardrum, if I'm correct, is just a physical structure, a soft diaphragm that wiggles and moves other physical structures, and as long as its capacity to do this isn't harmed, I doubt there would be a danger of this, by itself, causing complications or new/worsening tinnitus. That said, I know some people get temporary tinnitus simply from earwax buildup. I would guess, in such a case, limiting the range of the eardrum's motion is probably causing a person's latent tinnitus to come to the forefront due to sensory deprivation and the nervous system's response of amplifying the signal. And I don't think a temporary, extremely small needle hole is likely to do the same.

Now, if the procedure is not done correctly, then yes, I could see serious damage occurring. Hence, I'm not quite desperate enough to wish for a black market FX-322 injection in some seedy underground setting—though the thought has crossed my mind.

 

Will they give any notice as to when they’re going to be released or is it just a spur of the moment deal?

 

The injection through the eardrum is quite ok and I don't know where so much fear comes from. I received 8 injections of Dexamethasone and after that went for 20 sessions of HBOT with no consequences .

 

Some companies do, some do not.

 

It only makes sense to release it on 3/22

Used to look forward to 420 in my younger days, now I look forward to 322.

 

I myself participated in the AM-101 trial and received a wild amount of intratympanic injections. Not a single one was painful nor produced any complication. I think it is a very safe procedure. Eardrum tissue seems to be one of the quickest in our body to recover from damage.